In Search of "The Idol Moment"

You hear Cowell allude to it week after week, "This is a performance that, unfortunately for you, no one will remember tomorrow." Every great Idol contestant has one. It's the Idol Moment — the point in the season when a performer convinces everyone watching that they're in it to win it.

Katherine McPhee had her Somewhere Over the Rainbow and David Archuletta had his Long and Winding Road. Chris Daughty's version of Fuel's Hemmorage was no doubt his moment while Bridge Over Troubled Water put Clay Aiken on the Idol map. Adam Lambert's unconventional interpretation of Ring Of Fire gave him the buzz he needed to rise into contention. Arguably, Bo Bice had the most memorable Idol Moment of all time with his a'cappella performance of In A Dream.

What do all of these aforementioned "Idol Moments" have in common? Correct. None of these contestants won American Idol. Having your Idol Moment is a double-edged sword. Yes, it cements you indelibly in the minds of the viewers and the judges as a potential winner, but it also creates its share of problems.

Most often these performances materialize in the last ten weeks of competition. However, this season we witnessed a unique occurrence when, for the first time in recent memory a final ten contestant had his Idol Moment during auditions as Andrew Garcia brought it strong with Paula Abdul's Straight Up. (Listen to it again and understand why it haunts him every week. It's really that good.)

The Idol Moment, assuming they have it in them in the first place, is the contestant's wild card. Play it too early and the bar is raised so high that the voters expect you to vault it every single week. Wait too long and you'll get voted off before you get your chance.

Here's next week's preview and my ranking of the winners, losers and the water-treaders.

1. Crystal Bowersox
Do yourself a favor and listen to her Me and Bobby McGee performance again. It was simply awesome... I'm a little concerned with her claim that she'll be taking a risk and doing something different on next week's show. While it might be fun, careful darling, you have the farthest to fall...
ODDS ON WINNING: 5:1

2. Siobhan Magnus
A couple of weeks ago, Siobhan turned in a bona fide Idol Moment with Aretha Franklin's Think, when she unveiled her much celebrated scream. Is that the only trick in her bag? And why does she resort to gimmicks at all? While she continues to display the ability to easily adapt to any genre, she sometimes appears to be a costumed Broadway character. Maybe Siobhan needs to scale it back and just sing great for a week or two.
ODDS ON WINNING: 7:1

3. Michael Lynche
The judges accused him of making a safe song choice last week, but I'll call it smart. I like Michael's ability to play to the audience. I'm predicting that he'll deliver an "Idol Moment" during R&B week. Watch for him to make a huge leap forward.
ODDS ON WINNING: 10:1

4. Lee Dewyze
Lee continued the trend he set last week but he may face a burdensome challenge during R&B week. Song choice will be crucial.
ODDS ON WINNING: 10:1

5. Aaron Kelly
Aaron made another huge jump as he picked the perfect song and an even better arrangement. Can this country boy testify with some soul next week? I think not. He needs just survive for now and be thankful that R&B week comes early in the competition while there are still plenty of sacrificial lambs.
ODDS ON WINNING: 14:1

6. Casey James
I'm starting to grow bored with Casey as he continues to play it very safe. His song choices are bland and his stage presence is uninspired. Expect him to continue his tumble next week.
ODDS ON WINNING: 18:1

7. Didi Benamy
Didi continues her streak of off-pitch renditions of songs that she has no business singing. I'm not sure she belongs here at all. She's standing outside with a paper umbrella and it's starting to rain.
ODDS ON WINNING: 30:1

8. Katie Stevens
As she resolves her dilemma of satisfying the judges, she's losing her grip on satisfying the voters. She can't survive too many more bottom three performances.
ODDS ON WINNING: 35:1

9. Andrew Garcia
He is so screwed.
ODDS ON WINNING: 45:1

10. Tim Urban
The only thing I'm going to miss about Tim is seeing that "holy ****" look on his face when Seacrest tells him that he's not going home this week. Don't expect to see that again. Lilly is still sitting at a bar somewhere shaking her head in disbelief.
ODDS ON WINNING: 85:1